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At the beginning of December in 2019, maybe in November in Wuhan, a city of a million in Central China, the first cases of a previously unknown lung disease. The only certainty is: the products Concerned were previously on a tier of the market. This place is considered to be the origin of the novel Coronavirus. Four months have passed since the government on July 31. December reported the infections to the world health organization. From a few cases, has become an unprecedented pandemic, no country is immune to the world and for which there is possibly only an effective and accepted means: the “Hammer – and-dance-strategy”.

“Hammer dance” is an effective medium?

Although experts are divided about which path is the Best, with the global disease deal, could “Hammer dance” as an effective means to enforce. The easy-to-remember theory has shaped the Silicon Valley consultant and author Tomas Pueyo. His eponymous essay has already been translated in 37 languages (here in English) and has found more than 50 million readers. His Thesis, greatly simplified: In the fight against the Coronavirus is from the heavy guns are first ascended, and then replaced when the spread is mitigated by a cautious Opening.

The “Hammer”, so Pueyo, be tough measures, at a stroke, to “a socially reasonable price” that would save millions of lives. The subsequent Phase he calls “dance”, because they are designed to be flexible, agile and “lighter” than the previous one had to be. In the center of the movement, the dissemination of stand rate. It indicates how many people are infects a of Infected. In General, the two, three people. Without contact restriction, the Virus would have infected within four weeks of 400 more people. The aim is therefore to push the reproductive number below 1. This means that an Infected person infects less than a human being.

The Corona-course dance around

The “dance” Phase would be a Phase in of the restrictions and the impression that the worst was over, but it is also a time in which no one can predict how people-and the pathogens are behavior – therefore, you have to dance with the measures to the course of “around,” Pueyo. In the time of the society step by step to more normal behavior back, you need to be driven, the so-called Contact Tracing, and the Test solid up,” says Alena Buyx, a Professor of medical ethics at the TU Munich. Tested positive would be strictly isolated, as contact persons. “The Virus is sort of boxed in.”

Hans-Ulrich Jörges

The Jargon of the gentle terror: My dictionary of being Overwhelmed

From Tomas Pueyos thoughts is within a few weeks, “a global strategy”, says “Capital”-in-chief and starcolumnist Horst von Buttlar. “Many politicians and advisors of politicians had contacted him, some members of Congress called. Also the German interior Ministry and the Robert Koch Institute to use the Hammer and the dance,” says von Buttlar in his Podcast “The Zero hour – Germany’s way out of the crisis”.

The enemy incurred in or in front of him run away?

Pueyo has expected for his strategy in some cases. About the “word-Case”scenario, in which nothing happens at all. The have the advantage that the economic life could first of all go on undisturbed, but over the short or long term health would collapse the system, and thus also the social structures. Only slightly better effects would be the reduction strategy and the “flatten the curve” result, according to the author, of his recommendation thus describes: “You’re your worst enemy and know of him but only very little – what options would you choose? You are you running to him or you can run to, to give you a bit of time?”

Search for Exit strategy

Mask duty, school openings, Hygiene policies indicates acceptance of the German proposals

If you will, the Federal government is just slow in the “dance mode”: The initial restrictions are lifted, the first shops are allowed to open, children go back to school. The effect of the measures will be paid after 10 to 14 days in the case of visible, says the Hamburg virologist Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit. “You will loosen the screws first of all the Parking, which are crucial for the security of supply, and only at the very end of the football and other fun events to come.”

Population immunize

The “dance” Phase could extend over a long period of time. “As long as not a large part of the population is immune, it can spread the Virus, Yes, as before”, says Mirjam Utrecht Kretzschmar of the University medical center. Therefore, it is also important that immunity will be tested. But how long will that take, is not yet in sight.

Sources: Tomas Pueyo, DPA, AFP, “Capital”, “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, Twitter