A country, almost the whole world is in a state of emergency: schools and kindergartens are closed, events are cancelled, also the limits are. Social contacts only discouraged is not, you are even prohibited to a large extent. Even now, many are wondering how long this was gonna go on and can. How long does Corona takes a crisis? The science journalist Mai Thi Nguyen is in a Video on Youtube in the title, the answer: “Corona’s goin’ first.”
Many years ago, experts analyzed the consequences of a pandemic. It was followed by –
In the Video, Nguyen may explain the circumstances under which the Coronavirus pandemic, at least in Germany, how long would it take, and what actions are needed for this. The 22-minute-long, science-based monologue was seen by millions of users. Nguyen, explained on your Youtube channel maiLab nearly 700,000 subscribers regularly scientific correlations in the Video is little hope for a speedy normalization of the situation. “I’m afraid we need a little more endurance. Quite a lot of stamina,” she says.
Coronavirus only by herd immunity, or the vaccine killable
On the basis of scientific studies and modelling, the journalist shows how difficult it is to achieve so-called herd immunity, or to bring the outbreak of the Virus to a Standstill. For a far-reaching immunity in the population to infect 60 to 70 percent of people with the Virus. The infection period must be spread over a longer period of time, not to overload to patients, the healthcare system, with many Hard-to – the now well-known Flattening of the curve so.
This is the second Phase in the fight against the spread of the Virus, says Nguyen. Phase one was the attempted containment of the Coronavirus, for example with the tracking of the chain of Infection and Isolate the Infected. This has spread the Virus, but now too far. Now, the key is to take measures to keep the number of Infected was initially low, for example, with social Isolation. This could be lifted after Easter, again, keeps Nguyen for “escapist fantasy”.
Science journalist Nguyen to the Coronavirus: “It’s a Marathon”
And, she reckons, why. The decisive factor is the reproduction number – ie the number of people infected, an Infected is. Add to this the number of available intensive care beds, so the capacity of the health system. Using an online calculator, Nguyen shows that the reproduction number would lie between 1.25 and 1.1, so that the hospitals can absorb Patients. Ordinarily, it is the Coronavirus of a reproductive number between 2 and 3. You familiar with this model, says Nguyen, should the current measures considerably longer than a year, maintained: “I can’t do”, this Plan was “untenable”.
The Alternative was now to press the number of the Infected so far that a return to Phase one: The infection chain must be able to understand the Infected have to go in quarantine. The pure Flattening would take too long, says Nguyen, and sets your audience to the fact that the epidemic is still not overcome: “We are only in a state, with both our healthcare system and our economy. So, in a state in which we so long to be able to endure, until the epidemic is over.”
“There is no practice in which we could be a herd immunity of 60 to 70 percent, without causing unimaginable damage,” says Nguyen. The epidemic will only end up with a vaccine, the development of which is likely to take at least a year. No rosy prospects so that the science journalist pictures there. And yet may makes Thi Nguyen the courage to hold on: “It is a Marathon. But I can’t understand how people 42 kilometers to run and still you create it.”
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